On Wisconsin

These numbers change so quickly - here's the best I can do to show you where the forest line is. Graphic by Fox 6 Milwaukee.

I needed to write into the void today.

I live in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Among the people that can remember to name this state we're generally known for either cows, cheese, football, or maybe the occasional serial killer. By longitude we're about as middle America as one can get, so we've had the blessing of the continental cushion where the wiser among us watched COVID-19 land and, predictably, explode on our country's coasts. Some of us took action before even infected coastal states took precautions. Right now we know that we're expecting the same wave of confirmed cases that everyone else is as we hunker down. We have opportunities our coastal brethren- namely, foresight - did not necessarily have.

I've been tracking daily case numbers since WI case #1, and I think we were the tenth state infected. Our worst spots are predictable if you know how Wisconsin people travel. Milwaukee, worst hit by far, is our most populous area and close to Chicago; travel to and from those metropolitan areas is commonplace, both by air and by land. Several other neighboring counties (largely residential) have higher case numbers than the rest of the state. Our first case was in Dane county, where Madison (our capitol) is, and it is the second most infected county at this time. Working our way north the counties that house Appleton and Oshkosh, not as large as the first two spots but still major centers for commerce, entertainment, and services for lots of central Wisconsinites, proved to have sizable numbers fairly early on. It's those centers that are the point here. People in this low population state tend to mobilize in one of two ways: from the sometimes extreme rural to the nearest "center" or from center to center depending on need, especially as one gets closer to the Lake Michigan coast. 

Milwaukee: 290. Waukesha: 42. Washington: 21.

Dane: 88.

Ozaukee: 20. Fond Du Lac: 18.

Wisconsin's a small state. We only have four counties above 200,000 people and none of them are over 1 million. The top four are Milwaukee, Dane, Waukesha - and Brown, which is where Green Bay is located. Green Bay is one of the biggest cities in Wisconsin (I know, believe me, I know) and is a commerce center denser than Appleton/Oshkosh as well as a cultural and tourism area due to the museums and the stadium. There are several hospitals here. Want to know how many COVID-19 cases we have here?

Four. It just went up today after being at three for over a week. Granted, we've also been one of three counties with domestic transmission, but we haven't seen any of the infectivity that the other two counties have.

Do I think we've completely missed the wave? Hell no. Wisconsin saw it's largest single leap - 128 cases - today, most in Milwaukee county. Two more Wisconsinites died (one in Dane and one in Milwaukee), bringing us up to seven total.

...but I'm genuinely really intrigued by our very low case number given the fact that our travel habits and population should put us square in the higher infectivity category. We even have a smaller airport here like the other centers with direct flights to the likes of Minneapolis and Milwaukee. What's different?

In this state "Up Nort'" is a real and complex concept. Even I, a non-Wisconsin native, wouldn't consider Green Bay "Up Nort'" - but we are a last gateway, especially for those coming up via 43 from Milwaukee and other lakefront areas. Maybe we've escaped what counties smaller than we are have gotten because we're juuuust out of our seasons - camping, sporting, hunting, football. A Wisconsinite can look at the map I posted and see that that quiet, uninfected swath of counties to the north along with the small peninsula are where many of us go for recreation or sport or relaxation when the weather is right. It's all currently out of season.

Indeed, I've seen notices and images and general pleas cross my social media begging those in the southern half of Wisconsin (and those from Chicago area, ahem) to NOT come to their cabins or lodges Up Nort' because most of the counties up there - covered largely by national forest, reservation, and pocket towns with just enough supplies for the locals - have zero COVID-19 cases and want to keep it that way. The image of the infected, populated southern part of the state and the largely healthy, distanced, open northern part is a fantastic microcosm of the importance of self-isolating and restricting travel - not just in my state, but in all states. If we're busy and mobile we spread things. If our streets are bare and we live remotely we can keep our numbers down or deflect them entirely.

...and, in addition to my own health concerns, that's why I'm not travelling even to places where I should be safe. I have no symptoms and I could go to the likely deserted dog beach an hour away - but one check-in at the forester shack or stop for gas or random beach visitor or broken down car could change all that. I can't get sick but I wouldn't want to sicken or kill someone, either.